Revenue projection will get worse, lawmakers predict

During Tuesday’s legislative forum, a few officials alluded to the budget picture getting worse. They won’t know until the next forecast in March, but Gov. Chris Gregoire’s Legislative Director, Marty Brown, put it this way: “I don’t think anyone in the room expects the Revenue Forecast to be up in March.”

Here’s the full AP Forum:

How bad could it be? Sen. Joe Zarelli, a Republican budget writer, predicted the deficit would be closer to $7 billion.

How could the budget picture get worse?

- During Legislative Assembly Days in early December, Arun Raha, executive director of the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, told members of the Ways & Means committees that the council predicted zero growth in holiday retail sales. A decline in sales, he said, would mean lower-than-predicted revenues.

And then: Late December storms hit, unemployment increased, and reports indicate that people didn’t spend as much as last year. That means holiday retail sales declined. We won’t know by how much until February.

During the budget-writers panel discussion at the legislative forum on Tuesday, here’s what lawmakers had to say:

Sen. Karen Fraser: “The year 2008 was a disaster … there is no established road map in how to deal with this,” she said.
“We don’t have the numbers in for December, but we know the numbers will be down.”

She said there will be public hearings on the budget next week. I counted — there are 11 budget-related committee meetings with public hearings next week (I’ll post those separately).

Sen. Joe Zarelli, a Republican, told reporters and editors that the state has seen exceptional growth over the last four years. “What we didn’t do is take a look at the fact that this wouldn’t last forever. That’s about 60 percent of what we face now.”

He suggested looking at how tuition is structured. He said one of the biggest problems with state school tuition is that “everyone pays the same, which hurts low- and middle-income” students.

Rep. Kelli Linville, a Democrat and chair of the House Ways & Means committee, said she expects to put together a supplemental budget by the end of January.

And Rep. Gary Alexander, a Republican, said the predicted shortfall gives lawmakers a chance to take another look at how budgeting is done. Specifically, some Republicans have said that schools should be funded first in any budget.

Tags: Budget, Governor, House, Senate