This week’s Q&A is with Sheryl Hutchison, communication director for the Employment Security Department. The department is responsible for tracking employment statistics, maintaining WorkSource offices around the state and much, much more.
Q: What’s the latest unemployment rate? Is the economy recovering yet?
Hutchison: Let’s start with the first question. We announced today that the unemployment rate in June dropped to 8.9 percent, which is the lowest since April, 2009. That’s obviously a better direction.
The next set of statistics for July will come out Aug. 17.
In all likelihood what we’ve been seeing when the rate has dropped as much as this one did, chances are it will be revised up to 9 percent.
But, it’s just exciting to see something less than 9 percent. This is the third month in a row that it has declined. Since the start of the year, we’ve had a net job growth in this state of more than 23,000 jobs. For us, that’s a lot more exciting than what the unemployment rate is. You’re seeing things turn around – it’s not a steep U-shaped recovery where it’s going right back up. But it is the right direction….last year (in the same five-month period) we had lost about 77,000 jobs. So that’s a big sea change.
Q: Part of high unemployment is that it depletes the Unemployment Insurance trust fund. When the Legislature increased the benefit payout, there was some concern the trust fund would be depleted too far. Where does that stand?
Hutchison: We still have the healthiest trust fund in the country. Thirty five states and territories have bankrupted their trust funds. Furthermore, we do not anticipate triggering any surcharges.
One of the benefits going into the recession with a healthy trust fund is it allowed us to increase benefits. At the end of May, the trust fund reserves were at 13.9 months. Typically, the federal government advises that you go into the recession with at least 12 months. We’ve come down, but we’re still healthy.
Q: Do you anticipate the fund dipping further?
Hutchison: No, we really don’t. Part of the reason is that through our governor and the Legislature, we’ve created a responsive system that reacts before we get to a critical stage. The result is you do start to see taxes start to rise, but it should happen in a gradual manner — rather than in other states when you see these sharp ups and downs, ours will kind of undulate for a while. They’ll go up for two or three years – that provides more stability.
Q: Have rates increased already?
Hutchison: They did start to increase this year. They’ll go up a little bit again next year. Probably … in 2012 they’ll start to flatten out. We don’t know yet – there’s a lot to happen between now and then. In 2011 it’ll go up again a bit more.
We call them “taxes,” but for the most part it’s really an insurance system with insurance premiums. So if you’re an employer who uses the program more, you’re going to pay a higher premium than an employer who doesn’t.
But it is an insurance system, which means shared costs. Some people who don’t use it at all are going to pay some of the freight for the people who do. There is more cost shifting going on right now – the people who haven’t used it are having a larger percentage increase than those at the top.
Q: Are you hearing complaints about that? From people who haven’t laid anyone off but are seeing a large increase in their premiums?
Hutchison: You always do. No one likes taxes. Some understand the system – they’ve been with it for a long time. If you’re someone at the bottom of the system whose rate is small – less than 1 percent of payroll – you might have seen your premiums double.
There’s two parts of the rate – there’s the experience rating and then there’s the piece that’s a socialized cost. That cost-shifting component varies more frequently. Experience rated taxes are averaged out over four years. They’ll see some increase over four years rather than just in one year. But it does mean there’s more cost shifting right now to make up for the loss in the trust fund. Our system is designed to increase the socialized cost to help even that out.
Q: Let’s talk about the Unemployment Insurance changes required by federal law. What needs to happen, and when does the Legislature need to make changes?
Hutchison: The Department of Labor has been encouraging states to do what we call “modernize” the unemployment system. (more…)
Tags: economy, Thursday Q&A, unemployment, WorkSource